My assessment of coronavirus transmission chances

My assessment: TB & Measles are much more communicable, and coronavirus is like the flu, but coronavirus is randomly more deadly than any of them. Also, coronavirus, if allowed to fester, may well mutate into even more deadly forms. Thus we have a public-health incentive to vaccinate and prevent its spread. And just like grandma said, fresh air is important!

Following quote is from a recent detailed article in Wired magazine, by Megan Molteni, mostly about the curious specification of droplet vs. airborne transmission, and the 1940s era of scientific progressivism not wanting to credit miasma! It turns out that miasma -- in the form of tiny airborne pollutants -- is really a thing.

...airborne transmission is both more complicated and less scary than once believed. SARS-CoV-2, like many respiratory diseases, is airborne, but not wildly so. It isn’t like measles, which is so contagious it infects 90 percent of susceptible people exposed to someone with the virus. And the evidence hasn’t shown that the coronavirus often infects people over long distances. Or in well-ventilated spaces. The virus spreads most effectively in the immediate vicinity of a contagious person.

Comments

Beirut, Byblos, and walks in the city

There are police, and barriers, in Beirut. Our first 2 days in one neighborhood were quite peaceful. Yesterday we walked further, to see more typical signs of concrete barriers and razor wire and military guards around the former President's house, and then today around the Saudi Arabian embassy. We also note the flurry of construction activity, both buildings and roads; yet in amongst the renovated sleek apartment buildings and shopping malls are old walls pockmarked with bullet-holes, and empty shells of buildings including the bizarre alien-looking building in the center of town. Cole and I attended a lecture by Tariq Ramadan at the American University of Beirut -- educational, fascinating even though Prof.Ramadan was speaking quite academically and not wanting to get tied down. The question-and-answer session was even more enlightening, to hear the emotional and articulate ripostes and sallies. About 400 people attended. ...

Driving everyone crazy

One of the lightning rods of dissent in the Kingdom is the government's refusal to permit women to drive. We know of no other nation with this ban; and to compound the confusion, there is apparently no explicit law banning it, just a reference to a decree in 1991. Like the other irritating restriction of the niqab veil, it also has no basis in the Koran, and therefore is not easily upheld in Sharia law. Recently the first name "Manal" has become a symbolic name, as the divorced Aramco IT expert -- she received awards for her expertise a few years ago -- drove a car near Coleman's high school last month and published the feat on YouTube. The deliberately banal video inflamed the sensibilities of the Saudi police, who detained Manal in the women's reformatory for 10 days. Her lawyer carefully pointed out that there was no law against her driving, and further she carefully avoided any reference to the Facebook group urging women to all drive on June 17th. St...

Reservoir of European Youth, Parliament

A few days ago I walked to the nearby Pasteleira Park, planning to visit the city museum at the Reservoir. Walking through the park I noticed a large group of young people gathered in a circle, engaged in team-building activities. My days in education attuned me to the spectacle and piqued my interest, so I sat on a nearby bench and watched as a succession of enthusiastic students ran to the center and started an activity, which all the others joined enthusiastically. What sort of group would this be? A typical high school class would include a portion of disinterested teens, and others only half-heartedly participating. This crowd was unanimous in their excitement. I also noted that the leaders were speaking in English, though the breeze muffled the words. I walked around, found a couple of older participants on the side, with official-looking lanyards, and asked: this was an activity of European Youth Parliament , simil...

Thomas journals

Search This Blog